As part of a strategic shift, Apple is steadily pivoting its smartphone production to India, signaling a significant transformation in the global tech landscape. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo forecasts that iPhones manufactured in India will constitute 12% to 14% of worldwide shipments in 2023, with a notable surge anticipated in the coming year.
Under optimistic conditions, Kuo envisions a remarkable leap, with Indian-made iPhones projected to account for an impressive 20-25% of global volume in 2024. This aligns with JPMorgan’s forecast from last year, suggesting that Apple could shift a quarter of its total iPhone production to India by 2025.
Foxconn currently commands a substantial 75-80% of iPhone production capacity in India, a dominance that is poised to see a shift as Tata Group, a major Indian conglomerate, enters the scene with plans to produce iPhones on Wistron’s production line.
In a groundbreaking move, Kuo anticipates Apple’s initiation of mass production for the standard iPhone 17 in India. This marks a historic milestone as the tech giant ventures into developing a new iPhone model outside of China for the first time. Kuo attributes the selection of the standard iPhone to its less intricate design, minimizing potential risks.
With the expanding share of iPhone production in India, Kuo predicts a correlated decline in output from Chinese factories. By 2024, he estimates a substantial reduction in Foxconn’s production capacity in China, with a shrinkage of 35-45% in Zhengzhou and Taiyuan witnessing a more significant decline of 75-85%.
Beyond manufacturing dynamics, Apple’s increased investment in Indian production is seen as a strategic move to bolster relations with the Indian government. Ming-Chi Kuo believes this maneuver will not only enhance iPhone sales but also position Apple favorably for future market growth in India.